Left Behind

Remember when the Dodgers had an all lefty rotation? Allow me to clear my throat. A-hem. Excuse me.

Yes, it is like what, the third week of practice baseball. I understand that, you understand that, and Bill Shaikin understands that. Still…we gotta talk about the fact that Scott Kazmir, so far, looks awful. So where does that leave the Dodgers?

Hello Mike Bolsinger story!

Hello Kenta Maeda story!

Hello Brandon Beachy story!

And, yes, hello to, my man, Zack Lee and a story ‘bout him, too!

You gotta love Spring and all the nervous energy that comes with it. 

Do not fret, though, Dodgers fans. As long as we have Clayton Kershaw, we'll be alright. Even if we’re never gonna be all-right.

I'm No Doctor, But...

...shoulder looks good.

My Point is Zach Lee!

Spring Training is almost here. Pitchers and catchers will start throwing and catching this weekend at Camelback Ranch and there will be plenty to feast our eyes on at Dodgers' camp including hyped prospects and new arms recently added to the rotation. One intriguing new arm that I was really looking forward to seeing in action is the one attached to the torso of highly touted prospect Frankie Montas. The big righty from San Cristobal can reportedly reach over 100 mph with his fastball. Unfortunately, the Montasaurus, acquired earlier this offseason in a trade with the White Sox, will neither be springing nor training, as he just had rib surgery and will miss up to 4 months.

Even with the loss of Montas there stands to be some serious competition among pitchers at camp. As has been the case in the past, there again will be a skirmish for at least one of the bottom rotation slots. What makes this year a little different is that, usually, you would expect one of the finalists who narrowly misses out on the chance to be in the rotation to stick around as a long or middle reliever, but that seat appears to be already taken...by Joe Blanton(?).

In a magical world where pitchers are as healthy as they say, Los Angeles' starting five would be:

1. Whats-his-name?
2. Scott Kazmir, LHP
3. Hyun-Jin Ryu, LHP
4. Brett Anderson, LHP
5. Kenta Maeda, RHP

In the world I know, baseball teams always need guys to pitch innings for the other guys who can't. So, for the sake of argument let's ponder some of the Dodgers' other options to start should such an opportunity present itself. First I'll mention some names already on the 40-man roster that I imagine would be given the opportunity.  Alex Wood makes the most sense to me as a sixth starter with his only knock being that he is another left-hander. Mike Bolsinger throws from the right side, has major league experience with decent success, and will probably be used in the same emergency starter capacity that we have seen him in for the past two years because of his options remaining that allow him to be sent to and from AAA all year long. Of the non-roster options, we have some of the best pitching prospects in the game in lefty Julio Urias and the right handed Jose De Leon. Throw in Brandon Beachy as a reclamation project with upside and you see the potential future that intrigues eager Dodger fans.

Still, with all the eye candy, I have not soured on a former first rounder who is my pick to have a sweet year, Zach Lee. According to Los Angeles's organizational pitching coordinator, Rick Knapp, Lee is "a reliable option right now, and I think he will pitch big innings for us". That is a solid endorsement from a man who has coached for the likes of a 20 year-old Rick Porcello when he was a Major League pitching instructor with the Tigers. Knapp also says of Lee that "his command has improved immensely. He uses his cutter on both sides of the plate".

It would be nice if all our well paid starters pitched 160 or more innings this year but, if not, the point is that we seem to be pretty well insured against injury. I'm especially excited to see the younger throwers get a shot to start in 2016 and I agree wholeheartedly with Rick Knapp's assessment of Zach Lee: "I think he's on the cusp of a breakthrough".

Bait Presentation

Holy mackerel! Jose De Leon is tipping the scales at fifth on MLB Pipeline's Top 10 RHP Prospects list. Why am I casting his name out there? Because, having emerged from obscurity, De Leon has evolved from being reeled in in the 24th round of the 2013 draft and spawning a 6.96 ERA, to leading MiLB in K's per nine in just two years. He would make a great catch for any team looking for a major league-ready starter in the bottom half of their rotation that could be cost controlled for years to come.

Please don't trust me because I've been wrong before and I'll be wrong again. My instinct tells me, though, that the Dodgers are shopping prospects along with some dead money like Carl Crawford.

I'll be curious to see what happens, for reel!

POWERBALL

Justin Upside

Just like me, Adrian Gonzalez is optimistic about the Dodgers roster in 2016. In an LA Times story from last month about his off-season training regimen, Gonzalez says of the defection of Zack Greinke to Arizona, "you're not going to replace him, but you can use that money that you didn't spend on a couple starters and a bat."

In the time since that piece was published on December 24, the Dodgers have spent on a couple starters. Their names are Scott Kazmir and Kenta Maeda and they committed to reasonable contracts.

The only item left from Adrian's proclamation is the "bat".

"These guys could be working on something really big that no one is thinking of. I don't worry about it. Right now, it might seem slow, it might seem like they're not doing much, but they could be doing a ton behind the scenes.

People focus on today," Gonzalez said. "They don't focus on what it might look like in February. I tell everyone to be patient. The off-season doesn't end until Game 1 of the regular season. You never know."

Just in time.

Have A Cigar

Q: What's the difference between a humidor and the Los Angeles Dodgers?

A: The Dodgers have more Cubans!

The Dodgers have reached an agreement with Cuban righty Yaisel Sierra. He will join a host of fellow countrymen on his new team. The posse of established (to various degrees) teammates now includes similarly spelled given-namer Yasiel Puig, deliciously lobed Alex Guerrero, and the enigmatic Erisbel Arruebarrena.

Stud Cuban prospects were added in the form of outfielder Yusniel Diaz and infielder Omar Estevez. There's right-hander Yadiel Alvarez, outfielder Starling Heredia, and infielder Ronny Brito, too. Also, outfielders Christopher Arias and Carlos Rincon. Oh, and shortstop Oneal Cruz.

[take a breath] Picked 12th overall in the 2010 draft, Yasmani Grandal was born in Havana. In addition, the Dodgers had previously signed Cuban defector Hector Olivera for $62.5M and subsequently traded him. I probably missed one or two dozen, but you get the idea.

Could Lazarito be next?

Hock a Loogy

...and so it begins.

We've known it would come to this; we knew that eventually the opening of a few roster spots would be necessary in order to accommodate adding some players not currently included on the 40-man roster to the team.

So now here we are one body lighter on the U.S.S. Dodgertown due to the return of left-handed reliever Armando Zerpa to his former team, the Boston Red Sox. This, combined with the ominous-sounding report of Hong-Chih Kuo’s sore elbow, combined with George Sherrill's Spring aches and lack of command, combined with recently demoted Scott Elbert's sore shoulder and 20.25 ERA, and combined with Brent Leach's struggles last year all lead me to believe that Cooletti is looking to hook Joe Torre and company up with an experiencied left-hander to help ease the bullpen burden.

As the Free Agent market for loogies dwindles down, there really are only a few names worth considering. Ron Mahay and Joe Beimel get the most play in rumors for any team that is looking to add a lefty, although Alan Embree is also available.

The Dodgers are getting to be obviously desperate with all the tough lefty luck lately, so I would expect any of the remaining free agents to be able to demand a Major League contract or an opt out of a Minor League deal like the one Will Ohman and his agent (hosed us on) were able to negotiate last year.

Pictures of Manny

Questions and Albuquerque

Who is playing second base for the ‘Topes this year?

It won’t be Hu. Chin-lung has an outside shot at the one backup shortstop position that is available this spring on the major league club. Hu should continue to play short in Albuquerque when he loses out to Alfredo Amezaga or Nick Green for that bench spot.

Ivan De Jesus, on the other hand, is almost fully healed from last year’s tough break and appears to be well enough to play full time. Ivan needs innings in order to make up for the ones lost healing his broken tibia, so it made sense to me when I read that “the Dodgers just want to see De Jesus get through this season at Triple-A in one piece”. Logic tells me that Ivan will play second base there.

Alright, but if Ivan De Jesus is already posted up at second base in Albuquerque, what position is Blake DeWitt expected to play should he not make the big league team?

Blake DeWitt is generally considered to be competing for a major league role in a second base platoon with Ronnie Belliard and Jamey Carroll. Anything can happen in Spring Training; ask DeWitt. No one expected him to begin the season as the Dodgers’ starting third baseman two years ago, but you know what happened then. The point is, though, that Ivan De Jesus is near full-strength, the Dodgers are transparently thin at third base in the minors after trading Joshua Bell for George Sherrill, and Casey Blake is not going to miraculously pull a Benjamin Button any time soon. After a messy campaign last year shuttling between AAA and L.A., DeWitt would really benefit from a stable year-full of play for one team at one position. So, should he not make the big league team, DeWitt's position appears to be third base for the Isotopes.

Who else will be on the AAA roster?

In addition to two shortstops (from the group of Hu, Amezaga, Green, and Angel Berroa), De Jesus, and probably DeWitt, I would expect Jason Repko, Xavier Paul, Russell Mitchell, Lucas May, A.J. Ellis, Jay Gibbons, Hyang-Nam Choi, Cory Wade, Jon Link, Travis Schlicting, and Brent Leach to be in Albuquerque. I purposefully excluded minor league pitchers Javy Guerra and Alberto Bastardo (who are probably good enough to be in AAA this year) so as to make the list as conservative as possible.

Where are all of Ned’s non-roster invitees going when they don’t make the Big Club?

Chances are, almost everyone who doesn't make the major league team out of Spring Training will be offered jobs in New Mexico. Most of the NRI’s are there to fill practice squads, anyway, and have no chance of making the major league roster to begin with. Players on this list include, but are not limited to, Francisco Felix, John Koronka, Justin Miller, JD Closser, Gabriel Gutierrez, Justin Knoedler, John Lindsey, Argenis Reyes, Brian Barton, Timo Perez, Prentice Redman, and Michael Restovich. Granted, all twelve of these guys won’t necessarily be playing for the Isotopes this year, but I bet a lot of them will be.

That’s a crazy number of players already, isn't it?

I know, and I’m not even finished yet! Besides the backup shortstop scrum and second base uncertainty at the major league level, Joe Torre and his crew also have a rotation issue and at least one bullpen competition to worry about. There are no less than EIGHT non-roster pitchers looking to make the Dodgers out of Spring Training. From a group consisting of Luis Ayala, Scott Dohmann, Josh Lindblom, Ramon Ortiz, Russ Ortiz, Juan Perez, Josh Towers, and Jeff Weaver, I expect a MINIMUM of four to be pitching for Albuquerque. Not to mention the possibilty of James McDonald being sent down to "work on stuff" just because of his convieniently remaining option year(s).

I’ve now got AT LEAST 30, probably closer to 35, total names potentially looking to catch on in ABQ, but of course not all of them can. Some players will get hurt, while some will be cut, and some may play in Double-A. Retirement could be a real option, as well, for guys like Brian Giles, Doug Mientkiewicz, Ramon Ortiz, and Russ Ortiz, who might prefer to not accept an assignment to New Mexico if they are not on the big league club by Opening Day. Bottom line: There are just not as many openings as there are players.

Ned Pulls Out, Wang Leaning To Right

As of this morning, former Yankees 19-game winning right-hander Chien-Ming Wang was reported to be all but signed with the Washington Nationals. Only an hour later though, we heard that nothing was close with Wang and the Nats. Maybe Chien-Ming turned on the news and saw that the East Coast was buried under a thick Snuggie of snow because Dodgers execs Ned Colletti and Logan White were reportedly to watch Wang throw today. So is Wang indeed headed for the Left Coast?

No. “Dodgers have pulled out of Wang derby“, says Jon Heyman.

I didn't think the Dodgers would ever actually sign the pitcher with the career 55-26 W-L record, though, because of lingering shoulder issues that remind us all of the “S”-word, but Washington makes sense for him and for them. Looks like the Nationals are going to insert Wang into the backend of their rotation sometime around May.

Significant Tools

I sure hope Matt Kemp does not get distracted by his own celebrity this year. Ken Gurnick has some insight into historic Dodgers hook-ups with famous tail and also some Kemp. The story even contains a reference to Brad Penny and Alyssa *touch* ‘em all Milano "linking". This got me thinking; then furiously trying to think of something entirely different. What else is going on in the Dodgersphere?

Brian Giles was signed to a minor league contract…um (how do you type a cursor blinking?). Honestly, the last story I read about this guy was about how him and his brother love showering together.

"You get nervous when you see those guys come into the shower"

Yeah. Back to Milano. She’s been connected to some real dooshes over the years, hasn’t she? Too bad she and I never met while we were both still unmarried. I qualify in the looks department, as well, because if Edgar Frog, Deputy Dewey, another goofy-looking dude, and Penny had a baby, it would look similar to me. That's ok, we'll always have Poison Ivy 2. Thanks for the memories.

Young Man Blues

Now, I’m not talking about my generation, I’m referring to the young men ten years my prior who will join together in the big leagues one day in the future, but, alas they are still a couple of years away. We've been told who the Top Prospects are before and we've been let down before, but we won't be fooled again into buying into player hype. I for one won't be, anyway. Anyhow…any…where was I? Oh yes I was writing a blog entry about my list of Dodgers Digital's 21 Best Prospects when my wife was like, “Why 21? Why not 20?"

Well, I did not come up with a number first and then fill up the list to that number, I merely listed my top prospects and they just happened to total 21. You will see the players divided into the 9 best pitchers and 12 best hitters, in my opinion. I have to agree with most ratings that Dee Gordon is our top position player, but I am one of the few who has Kyle Russell as the second best. It’s not like I can see for miles into the future, but to me, KR seems promising, as does my Number One ranked Dodgers pitching prospect, Aaron Miller. This guy is going to be riding the magic bus to LA sooner than Ethan Martin and, to me, has more upside, as well.

I can’t explain how I came up with these rankings, it is just my opinion of the player, but I have included their 2009 statistics. The point is, though, that if I ran into Lasorda on the street I’d say, “Hey Tommy, I watched The Baseball Bunch religiously as a kid and in my mind you will always be the Dugout Wizard! Tommy, can you hear me?! The kids are alright!"

Some may disagree with me on this Super Bowl XLIV Sunday, but I think I’m going to enjoy the halftime show. Long live rock!

1 Cool Customer

Ned Colletti has played it so cool the past two winters, that from now on I will occasionally refer to him as Ned COOL-etti. He got us Padilla, Belliard, and Johnson all on the cheap, while Ausmus and Carroll were acceptable. After signing NRI's like Mientkiewicz, Amezaga, and Weaver, who else will Cooletti schmooze into accepting a spring invite? I would not mind seeing another experienced loogy or two out of the pen to compete with Zerpa and Elbert. There are plenty of free agents left unsigned and Cooletti is whispering sweet nothings in their ears already, promising roster spots that aren't even there yet.

When it comes to contract negotiations, Ned is as cool as the other side of the pillow, as cool as a cucumber, as cool as "Cool Whip", but also, Cooletti, is a cold hard ballbreaker when it comes to getting the guys we want for the price Frank wants. I'm sure Ned has mad baseball knowledge, but now he is coming across as a superior salesman as well.

I will always watch my team, root for my team, wear my team colors, and defend my team, but in my heart, I'll admit, I had doubts about what Ned was up to. Now, though, I truly feel that this team, as it is assembled, is looking pretty good and close to where we should be by opening day. I'm very much looking forward to a three-peat as NL West champs in 2010. Cooletti, you have made a believer out of me: I am excited about the way this team is shaping up.

If you are not a Dodgers fan, then please, complain about this roster. Otherwise, let the NL West best streak run to 3, you weak wanna-be's! I back the squad that Cooletti has constructed 100% 'cause I love the Dodgers the way Cooletti loves inventory, baby! So hows abouts a coupla more NRIs Ned? Some left-handers like Noah Lowry or Joe Beimel or Ron Mahay? Whatta ya say?

Weew. Getting a little hot under the collar. I better chill out.

Hole Punch

With the signings of Ronnie Belliard, Brad Ausmus, and Reed Johnson, all holes in the Dodgers’ 40-man roster are now full. There are still several positions left open for competition on the Active squad that would appear to be best filled by one or more of Ned’s long list of non-roster invitees that includes Jeff Weaver, Alfredo Amezaga, and Doug Mientkiewicz. If any NRI guys are to make the team out of spring training, we'll need to axe or trade some fellows off the 40-man list to make room.

The Dodgers do have options, though, but Eric Stults and Charlie Haeger do not. They are both “out of options” so if they don’t make the team, they will have to clear waivers to be sent to the minor leagues. Carlos Monasterios and Armando Zerpa are an even easier decision. They can simply be given back to their old clubs. In addition, Belliard’s contract, while it is a major league deal, is non-guaranteed.

In Ned’s pantry, he has some surpluses of catchers and outfielders to trade, as well. AJ Ellis, Lucas May, Jason Repko, Xavier Paul, and even Chin-lung Hu could be traded; perhaps for a left-handed relief pitcher or even more prospects to stock the farm.

2 Headed Monster

The Two-Headed Monster is, as the name implies, a monster with two heads.

Jonathan Broxton and George Sherrill (pictucted above) are making Joe Torre really comfortable managing this year. Their 2009 dominance as one of the best Righty/Lefty closer combos in baseball should let JT focus on the first seven innings and let the cards fall where they may in the final frames. Dodgers starters aren't known for going deep into the game lately so why ask them to? Chad and Clay are young, so limiting their innings can't hurt. The important thing is to get quality starts, then hold the game close in the middle innings until you can unleash the power arms out of 'pen in the 8th and 9th. I'm looking forward to a full season of our two-headed monster locking up saves whenever there's a late lead.

Feeling Demoted

Ouch, that hurts.

For Blake DeWitt, AJ Ellis, Jason Repko, Xavier Paul, (and most likely Chin-lung Hu) the news of recent Dodgers signings can’t feel too pleasant. Here's some highlights from Ken Gurnick of mlb.com:

• "Now Ronnie Belliard re-joins the mix, appearing to be the incumbent [for] the Dodgers, who appeared headed for Spring Training with Blake DeWitt and free-agent signee Jamey Carroll competing for the starting second-base position."
• Brad Ausmus's "return blocks the promotion of rookie A.J. Ellis."
• "Non-roster invitee Doug Mientkiewicz could make the team as a left-handed pinch-hitter."
• "The Dodgers are still looking to add a left-handed-hitting outfielder to compete with rookie Xavier Paul and Jason Repko. One free agent the Dodgers have had interest in previously is Frank Catalanotto."

Oh, well, I heard Albuquerque has got some great cuisine, though. Please, just don't tell Belly.

3 Holes to Fill

Now that Vicente Padilla is our Fourth Starter, I can officially add him to my 40-Man Roster Excel sheet. He is the 37th Dodger on this year’s roster, therefore leaving three more slots to fill. Judging from past experience, those holes are usually filled by non-roster invites, but according to Dylan Hernandez of latimes.com, "Colletti said the free agents the Dodgers are looking to sign to be bench players are players who would merit major league deals."

There’s also always the possibility of players presently on the roster being designated for assignment, being moved to the 60-day DL, or, as is the case with Carlos Monasterios and Armando Zerpa, just being given back to their old team, but for the purpose of this post, I will focus on just the three current openings. From my viewpoint, it looks like an obvious position to add to the roster will be a backup shortstop. The NRI candidates for this position include Angel Berroa and Nick Green. Everything I read about Green leads me to believe that he will be added, although we saw Berroa 2 years ago and he was serviceable. This is all very bad news for Chin-lung Hu.

The second hole would appear to be available for Brad Ausmus. If Ausmus retires (probable) or signs elsewhere (unlikely), AJ Ellis looks to be the guy that will backup RJ Martin. Should Ellis remain the bench Catcher, that 40-man roster spot would be left open for Doug Mientkiewicz or a yet unsigned player of “merit”. I'd rather see Rod Barajas over Ausmus and Ned and I both know there will be pinch hitter-type sluggers available late in the Winter who might take a McContract and serve us a little better than Mientkiewicz.

The final roster spot is less easily defined. In all likelihood, the Fifth Starter will come from a group of players that are already on the team and another member of this group who does not win a starting gig should hang on as a long reliever. So, by deduction, the final hole will most likely be filled by a relief pitcher who is currently a Free Agent or already on our NRI list. Ron Mahay or Joe Beimel would be a nice addition, I think, but of all the names that Ned has signed so far on minor league deals, a few caught my attention. Luis Ayala, Scott Dohmann, and Justin Miller all look promising to me along with Juan Perez, but only because he’s left-handed. In summary, we would be lucky to see a Brad Ausmus or a Joe Beimel signing at this point, as the majority of holes look to be filled from within the organization.

All About E

What I have done is take a sample of each player on this chart's recent offensive statistics and multiplied the sample totals by a percentage to approximate the at-bats the player would have in a healthy year. When everyone was projected, I constructed my own lineup like I would in a video game or simulator. Amazingly, R.J. Martin looks great in the number two spot of the batting order, but that is not the only surprise. A look at Andre Ethier's projection shows a low number of Home Runs and Runs Batted In (top chart, red numbers).

The numbers are, again, approximations and projections based on the players' recent statistical output. Andre Ethier, until last year, did not show enough power to hit cleanup as you see in the chart. However, if his 2010 power numbers match or beat 2009 (lower chart, bold), the Los Angeles Dodgers should have a potent Offense.

The bottom portion is the bench. The bench is actually solid and Jason Repko even gives us some pop! I am including some NRI guys in here and the Catcher position is still open, but as long as the backup backstop can give us a minimum of 120 at bats, we should be good to go.

That is of course, if "E" can continue to provide as much power next to Manny as he did last year.

4: The Source of the Tetractys

"To the Pythagoreans, 4 was the source of the tetractys 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 = 10, the most perfect number."

Four was indeed the most perfect number for us fans of the Los Angeles Dodgers last season, as our Fourth Starter, Randy Wolf, seemingly became the de facto Ace right before our eyes. Hoping to catch lightning in a bottle again this year, Ned Colletti will wear down the remaining free agent starters' agents like a veteran prize fighter until he can get them to sign for much less money than they anticipated getting just months ago. I have rounded up links of the only talked about pitchers available right now and ranked them in order of how hard it appears that the Dodgers are pursuing them.

(The first Four are grouped together in RUMORS so often that I will keep them together here as well)

• Joel Pineiro - decent groundball pitcher who oddly is not as good in even-numbered years.
• Vicente Padilla - any guy who chills with Tony Montana is cool!
• Braden Looper - made more sense to me last year.
• Jon Garland - as far as I can tell, the Dodgers are not as interested in Jon right now at the price he's asking for. He's a backburner option, if that.

• Ben Sheets - could be a great pickup, could be a Jason Schmidt clone.
• Noah Lowry - more of an NRI guy to me.

capital investment

In his 12/23/09 mailbag entry, Ken Gurnick reported that "[Roy] Halladay told Toronto he wouldn't accept a trade to any West Coast club that conducts Spring Training in Arizona. Halladay lives in Odessa, Fla., about 15 miles from the Phillies' training camp in Clearwater...it didn't matter what players the Dodgers offered and it probably didn't matter how much money they could have committed in a contract extension -- Halladay wasn't coming to Los Angeles."

Good point, but I wonder if, in fact, LA had any money to commit to a Hallady extension at all because on the very same day that Gurnick's piece came out, the now infamous Bill Shaikin Q&A with Dennis Mannion was published on the LA Times' website featuring some nuggets like, "Why would you put yourself in a position where, if the guy can win -- let's use a number -- $8 million in arbitration and his agent right now is asking $9 million, and you have a history where it comes down to $4 million, what are you thinking?". Mannion is speaking in general terms here, but it sounds an awful lot like he's referencing Orlando Hudson and implying what the Dodgers thought he was worth.

"That's also showing bizarre behavior, in my opinion, in terms of teams bidding against themselves for draft picks. That's been going on for a while on the amateur side of the business. But it's happening now on the international side, with guys you don't know anything about." This quote sounds like he's saying that the high signing bonuses, and lotteries for signing rights to international players, are not good "business decisions" even though that is how most of baseball does its business.

When asked if the Dodgers could afford to extend Roy Halladay had he waived his No-trade Clause, Dennis Mannion replied, "Portable concession".

And now, finally, on this past Thursday, we heard from the Man himself about the State of the Dodgers, "To repeat what I said in October, my personal situation and divorce has no bearing on the team whatsoever".

I think Mannion said it best last month when he said, "You're dealing with a very fluid situation. Those millions that are potentially in play, they can manifest themselves where the opportunity is. If the opportunity is in buying more portable concession stands, then that's what you do."

Hot Dog!