Feeling Demoted

Ouch, that hurts.

For Blake DeWitt, AJ Ellis, Jason Repko, Xavier Paul, (and most likely Chin-lung Hu) the news of recent Dodgers signings can’t feel too pleasant. Here's some highlights from Ken Gurnick of mlb.com:

• "Now Ronnie Belliard re-joins the mix, appearing to be the incumbent [for] the Dodgers, who appeared headed for Spring Training with Blake DeWitt and free-agent signee Jamey Carroll competing for the starting second-base position."
• Brad Ausmus's "return blocks the promotion of rookie A.J. Ellis."
• "Non-roster invitee Doug Mientkiewicz could make the team as a left-handed pinch-hitter."
• "The Dodgers are still looking to add a left-handed-hitting outfielder to compete with rookie Xavier Paul and Jason Repko. One free agent the Dodgers have had interest in previously is Frank Catalanotto."

Oh, well, I heard Albuquerque has got some great cuisine, though. Please, just don't tell Belly.

3 Holes to Fill

Now that Vicente Padilla is our Fourth Starter, I can officially add him to my 40-Man Roster Excel sheet. He is the 37th Dodger on this year’s roster, therefore leaving three more slots to fill. Judging from past experience, those holes are usually filled by non-roster invites, but according to Dylan Hernandez of latimes.com, "Colletti said the free agents the Dodgers are looking to sign to be bench players are players who would merit major league deals."

There’s also always the possibility of players presently on the roster being designated for assignment, being moved to the 60-day DL, or, as is the case with Carlos Monasterios and Armando Zerpa, just being given back to their old team, but for the purpose of this post, I will focus on just the three current openings. From my viewpoint, it looks like an obvious position to add to the roster will be a backup shortstop. The NRI candidates for this position include Angel Berroa and Nick Green. Everything I read about Green leads me to believe that he will be added, although we saw Berroa 2 years ago and he was serviceable. This is all very bad news for Chin-lung Hu.

The second hole would appear to be available for Brad Ausmus. If Ausmus retires (probable) or signs elsewhere (unlikely), AJ Ellis looks to be the guy that will backup RJ Martin. Should Ellis remain the bench Catcher, that 40-man roster spot would be left open for Doug Mientkiewicz or a yet unsigned player of “merit”. I'd rather see Rod Barajas over Ausmus and Ned and I both know there will be pinch hitter-type sluggers available late in the Winter who might take a McContract and serve us a little better than Mientkiewicz.

The final roster spot is less easily defined. In all likelihood, the Fifth Starter will come from a group of players that are already on the team and another member of this group who does not win a starting gig should hang on as a long reliever. So, by deduction, the final hole will most likely be filled by a relief pitcher who is currently a Free Agent or already on our NRI list. Ron Mahay or Joe Beimel would be a nice addition, I think, but of all the names that Ned has signed so far on minor league deals, a few caught my attention. Luis Ayala, Scott Dohmann, and Justin Miller all look promising to me along with Juan Perez, but only because he’s left-handed. In summary, we would be lucky to see a Brad Ausmus or a Joe Beimel signing at this point, as the majority of holes look to be filled from within the organization.

All About E

What I have done is take a sample of each player on this chart's recent offensive statistics and multiplied the sample totals by a percentage to approximate the at-bats the player would have in a healthy year. When everyone was projected, I constructed my own lineup like I would in a video game or simulator. Amazingly, R.J. Martin looks great in the number two spot of the batting order, but that is not the only surprise. A look at Andre Ethier's projection shows a low number of Home Runs and Runs Batted In (top chart, red numbers).

The numbers are, again, approximations and projections based on the players' recent statistical output. Andre Ethier, until last year, did not show enough power to hit cleanup as you see in the chart. However, if his 2010 power numbers match or beat 2009 (lower chart, bold), the Los Angeles Dodgers should have a potent Offense.

The bottom portion is the bench. The bench is actually solid and Jason Repko even gives us some pop! I am including some NRI guys in here and the Catcher position is still open, but as long as the backup backstop can give us a minimum of 120 at bats, we should be good to go.

That is of course, if "E" can continue to provide as much power next to Manny as he did last year.

4: The Source of the Tetractys

"To the Pythagoreans, 4 was the source of the tetractys 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 = 10, the most perfect number."

Four was indeed the most perfect number for us fans of the Los Angeles Dodgers last season, as our Fourth Starter, Randy Wolf, seemingly became the de facto Ace right before our eyes. Hoping to catch lightning in a bottle again this year, Ned Colletti will wear down the remaining free agent starters' agents like a veteran prize fighter until he can get them to sign for much less money than they anticipated getting just months ago. I have rounded up links of the only talked about pitchers available right now and ranked them in order of how hard it appears that the Dodgers are pursuing them.

(The first Four are grouped together in RUMORS so often that I will keep them together here as well)

• Joel Pineiro - decent groundball pitcher who oddly is not as good in even-numbered years.
• Vicente Padilla - any guy who chills with Tony Montana is cool!
• Braden Looper - made more sense to me last year.
• Jon Garland - as far as I can tell, the Dodgers are not as interested in Jon right now at the price he's asking for. He's a backburner option, if that.

• Ben Sheets - could be a great pickup, could be a Jason Schmidt clone.
• Noah Lowry - more of an NRI guy to me.

capital investment

In his 12/23/09 mailbag entry, Ken Gurnick reported that "[Roy] Halladay told Toronto he wouldn't accept a trade to any West Coast club that conducts Spring Training in Arizona. Halladay lives in Odessa, Fla., about 15 miles from the Phillies' training camp in Clearwater...it didn't matter what players the Dodgers offered and it probably didn't matter how much money they could have committed in a contract extension -- Halladay wasn't coming to Los Angeles."

Good point, but I wonder if, in fact, LA had any money to commit to a Hallady extension at all because on the very same day that Gurnick's piece came out, the now infamous Bill Shaikin Q&A with Dennis Mannion was published on the LA Times' website featuring some nuggets like, "Why would you put yourself in a position where, if the guy can win -- let's use a number -- $8 million in arbitration and his agent right now is asking $9 million, and you have a history where it comes down to $4 million, what are you thinking?". Mannion is speaking in general terms here, but it sounds an awful lot like he's referencing Orlando Hudson and implying what the Dodgers thought he was worth.

"That's also showing bizarre behavior, in my opinion, in terms of teams bidding against themselves for draft picks. That's been going on for a while on the amateur side of the business. But it's happening now on the international side, with guys you don't know anything about." This quote sounds like he's saying that the high signing bonuses, and lotteries for signing rights to international players, are not good "business decisions" even though that is how most of baseball does its business.

When asked if the Dodgers could afford to extend Roy Halladay had he waived his No-trade Clause, Dennis Mannion replied, "Portable concession".

And now, finally, on this past Thursday, we heard from the Man himself about the State of the Dodgers, "To repeat what I said in October, my personal situation and divorce has no bearing on the team whatsoever".

I think Mannion said it best last month when he said, "You're dealing with a very fluid situation. Those millions that are potentially in play, they can manifest themselves where the opportunity is. If the opportunity is in buying more portable concession stands, then that's what you do."

Hot Dog!

5th Starter Slaughter

Charlie Haeger vs

Eric Stults vs

Russ Ortiz vs

James McDonald vs

Carlos Monasterios vs

Josh Towers vs

Scott Elbert vs

Josh Lindblom

...all in a no-holds-barred, every-man-for-himself battle royal!

The survivor of this bare-knuckle, winner-take-all cage match will inherit the honor of Dodgers' Fifth Starter. The first runner up should receive a spot as Dodgers' Long Reliever as consolation (not too shabby), but for others, the image in my crystal ball is a little more murky.


First off, I will eliminate Elbert and Lindblom from consideration until Spring Training.

I think Stults and Haeger are out of options and typically the Dodgers keep guys like these on the roster in April until they can be traded or get released once a better alternative comes along. So, I feel good about Stults right now, although, if he were to be sold to a Japanese team, Haeger would be my frontrunner.

Next comes McDonald. He is a special case because he has every reason and all the ability to be the 5^th Starter, but in the long run, is he a better alternative to Stults or Haeger? James's skills would be wasted in long relief
and he has stated a desire to be a starter in 2010. I will say he has an option or two, but I'm not sure. If not, he really better get after it in Spring Training.

After JMac, the old NRI guys get attention just because Ned and JT like "familiarity" and "experience". Here is where Dodger fans start to grimace: Russ Ortiz. He and Josh Towers have as good a shot as anybody to steal that fifth vacancy in the rotation (unfortunately). Towers, though, might be this year's Jeff Weaver unless the Dodgers resign Jeff Weaver in that case Jeff Weaver would actually be this year's Jeff Weaver.

Then there's Carlos Monasterios, the Rule 5 pick that keeps drawing comparisons to Ronald Belisario for his undiscovered goodness. He figures to be another guy who could lose his way into winning the long relief spot. I feel the Dodgers want to keep this fella on, and in that role they can limit his innings while having him available to spot start.

Were you keeping score? OK here's the box: Chuck Haeger survives to become the new intercontinental Dodgers' Fifth Starter! JMac puts up a good fight and is able to force Stults into submission and out of the country, but alas James gets moved to the DL with a bogus "hangnail" injury. Russ Ortiz's arm falls off, Towers is assigned to AAA, and Monasterios stays on as swingman.